We observe a change of trend, price is creating higher high and higher low from a 4h timeframe. Our stop loss is about 100pips from current level and take profit is roughly 165pips away. Risk reward ratio will be 1.6 times. We will invalidate our bullish bias when price pushes below 1.308
With a break higher of previous high on 1h chart, we look for EURUSD pushing higher towards 1.185 area. Our bullish view will be invalidated when price breaks below 1.173 level.
Senate has failed to pass Trump's Healthcare act to replace Obamacare. This is a major defeat for Trump and we should a delay for Trump to push forward Trump's healthcare act. This news came out to be negative USD, putting pressure on USD which is already beaten down. Due to investors forsaking USD and a quiet US session, we see other currencies such as AUD, CAD and EUR strengthening against USD.
BOC has recently hiked interest rates by 25 basis points, the first time in past 7 years. BOC governor cited that interest rates will be higher, this is in light of positive data, with recent data on the economy being positive and BOC target levels within reach.
On the other hand, we noted the weakness of USD in our previous article, with the possibility of september rate hike unlikely.
Given the strengths of CAD and weakness of USD, trading USDCAD in favor of the downside is the best option at the moment.
Lately, there have been confusing messages sent out from ECB, particularly in the course of policy. ECB Draghi highlighted the possibility of policy change from accommodative while another ECB member has stated that accommodative policy should remain intact for years to come since ECB goals have not been achieved. Looking at the figures, most figures have improved, with market already pushing up EUR. Over the next few meetings, there is a need to pay close attention to the tone of Draghi to provide further policy direction, at the moment EUR has been up significantly. Once confusion has been cleared, it will provide clearer direction for EUR. A hawkish statement from Draghi should provide another push for EUR to the upside, but there may be concerns of strong EUR affecting the Eurozone exports.
Over the past week, we see US dollar weakening. Fed Yellen did not set a hawkish tone during her address. It was highlighted that inflation figure is a concern, below the targeted inflation rate of Fed, with year on year consumer price index rate dropped to lowest in 8 months. Retail sales also contracted slightly. With that, September rate hike should be likely be put on hold. During this period, we observe that other central banks seem to be hawkish of the economy, an indication of rate hike.
That explains and suggests that demand for US dollar to be negatively impacted while favoring other currencies with which central banks are hawkish. We observe the strengthening of GBP, AUD and CAD.
We noticed that AUDCAD broke above downward trend line, it subsequently moved higher within upward channel. Price is supported by FE 100 and bullish candlestick pattern has been identified. We went long with stop loss below bullish candlestick with take profit at where the upper trend channel is. The risk reward ratio for this case is slightly more than 1.
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